Focus on the Albertine Rift

Detailed, fine-scale modeling for 14 endemic bird species in the Albertine Rift shows that all of them are at severe risk from climate change impacts.

The ranges of all 14 species are projected to move upwards in elevation, a trend which has been both modelled and observed across a range of species and taxa in mountainous regions throughout the world. The average altitudinal shift could be 350m by 2085. Ranges may also shift slightly northwards.

3-D representation looking north up the Albertine Rift – of the modeled distribution of Regal Sunbird Nectarinia regia for: a) the present; b) 2025, and; c) 2085 The red indicates areas with suitable environmental condition for the species. The grey scale background is a digital elevation, with light grey representing higher altitudes 

The species at highest risk is the Red-collared Mountain-babbler Kupeornis rufocinctus, which is projected to lose all suitable climate space within the region. Other species at very high risk are those whose current and future ranges barely overlap. These include Handsome Francolin Francolinus nobilis, Ruwenzori Batis Batis diops, Grauer’s Swamp-warbler Bradypterus graueri and Newman’s Warbler Hemitesia neumanni. 

The research identified regions outside the current IBA network that are projected to be important in providing suitable environmental conditions for many of the 14 species by 2085. When viewed alongside our understanding of these species’ ecology, this research suggests that protection and restoration of the forests in these regions could help ensure the resilience of the Albertine Rift’s IBA network under climate change.

Projected species richness of 14 Alberine Rift endemics across time. Warmer colours indicate greater richness. Grey-scale is a 30 arc-second digital elevation model, with dark colours representing higher elevation